Match the newsletter forecast to its channel

The newsletter's MLCC increase comes from TrendForce's August 27 forecast: SEMCO consumer-grade X5R prices were estimated to rise 25 to 30% on average for OEM and ODM customers in 4Q26. Keep that original forecast date and customer scope with the figure.

TrendForce's September 30 public MLCC summary describes softer low-end consumer prices while high-end AI specifications remain tight and firm. We used the public summary and contents; the paid report was not available to us.

The September channel observations don't establish whether the earlier OEM/ODM forecast was realized. Ask the supplier to identify the grade, sales channel, part numbers and effective date behind its proposed increase. Don't apply a consumer or AI-server benchmark to the whole passive-component budget.

Keep the reported transition separate from your notice

In its September 24 release, TrendForce reports that Murata is discontinuing selected consumer and automotive products, with orders accepted until 2028 and final shipments in 2029. It links the transition to capacity moving toward higher-end applications.

That report doesn't establish a deadline for every Murata part on your BOM. Obtain the supplier notice and affected-part list before setting a last-time-buy quantity or telling a customer its approved component is ending.

The older notice has earlier deadlines

Murata notice D08957-A-A2102, dated September 12, 2025, sets March 31, 2027 for last orders and March 31, 2028 for final shipment. The PDF filename says October 2025; the notice itself carries the September date.

It covers selected GRM, GRT and GCM products with size codes 32, 43 and 55, rated 100V or below. It explicitly excludes some products within that description. Use the detailed part list associated with the notice, not the prefix alone, when checking exposure.

Confirm qualification before placing a last-time buy

TrendForce's September 24 release says global brands have begun qualifying Chinese MLCC suppliers as Japanese and Korean producers shift capacity toward AI. Qualification work at another company doesn't approve a part for your design.

Ask engineering for the proposed alternate's required checks and committed release date. Compare that date with the supplier deadline before choosing between a last-time buy and a substitution.

What Buyers Should Do Now

  1. This week: Match each increase and EOL notice to exact part numbers and approved grades.
  2. Before a last-time buy: Confirm the notice reference, order deadline and final shipment date with your authorized supplier.
  3. Before the next design freeze: Complete alternate qualification and record the approved replacement against each exposed BOM line.