What TrendForce reported
TrendForce projects conventional DRAM contract price growth to moderate to 13-18% quarter over quarter in 3Q26, which still means contract prices go up. The quarter before was large: industry revenue reached nearly US$154.73 billion in 2Q26, up 59.5%, driven by sharp rises in contract prices. The same release says supplier inventories remain at historic lows and that additional supply is mainly allocated for server use.
Why growth is slowing
TrendForce attributes the slower growth to two things: some demand shifting from high-capacity RDIMMs toward lower-capacity products, and the limited ability of PC and smartphone customers to absorb further price increases.
Both are demand-side changes. On the supply side, inventories remain at historic lows and incremental output goes mainly to servers. For a buyer outside servers, prices are still rising, more slowly than before, and most of the new supply is going to server customers.
Three suppliers hold most of the market
Samsung held 39.4% of 2Q26 DRAM revenue, SK hynix 24.9% and Micron 23.3%, a combined 87.6%. With inventories at historic lows across the industry, no other supplier is holding spare stock you could move to.
That concentration is why labour news at any one of the three deserves attention. This week's Micron update sets out where that dispute stands.
What Buyers Should Do Now
- Immediately: Ask every DRAM supplier to confirm your allocation in writing, as a separate question from price.
- Through 3Q26: Compare your contract resets against the 13-18% range. If yours come in above it, find out whether you're being priced as a lower-priority account before you accept.
- For 2027 planning: Forecast server and non-server DRAM demand separately, since new supply is going mainly to servers and a combined forecast won't show which part of your demand is short.